Edith Jones, For Political Reasons

President Bush will name Edith Jones tonight to replace retiring Justice Sandra Day O’Connor, mainly for political reasons. The President is in trouble in many areas: his approval ratings have reached low levels due to factors such as the War in Iraq and the Karl Rove controversy. He will not want to also anger the far right by choosing a moderate, therefore he will choose a strict constructionist, namely Edith Jones.

One of my basic assumptions about this President is that he is good at politics but not good at government. I think he will treat this nomination the way he treats most decisions: how can it help him politically? If he chooses a moderate it can certainly harm his already precarious position. Just look at the uproar from the far right over the Terry Shiavo case. And don’t think Bush hasn’t received any telephone calls from them during this process. The reason I don’t think he’ll choose Alberto Gonzales is that the important thing here is to placate the right. He can appoint Gonzales when Rehnquist retires. If he nominates Edith Clement now, that leaves Gonzales out of the loop, because the pressure will be irresistible to nominate a hard-liner next time. Also, if Bush nominates a moderate now, there is likely to be a political war, mainly from within his own party.